Russian Invasion Far From Certain
Are Washington and London reacting to their own talking points?
Predicting an event like war or the absence of one is a perilous business, especially with Joe Biden and his foreign policy team suggesting that a Russian invasion is imminent. Wall Street took this implication to heart on Friday with another selloff (although the market is still radically overvalued). But I hate on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand analysis, so I will go out on a limb: Moscow is still unlikely to order a major invasion of Ukraine, especially anything west of the Donets River.
What has changed in the last week for Washington and London to have gone from bellicose and alarmist to super-alarmist? It mostly comes down to language induced in the West, rather than real-world factors. Biden said of Putin that, “My guess is he will move in.” He also said that if U.S. troops became engaged with Russian troops it would be “world war.” His national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said the threat is “immediate” and urged Americans to leave Ukraine.
However, neither man bothered to explain why they have become more pessimistic. Each morning, and more frequently when necessary, our top commanders and policymakers are furnished with “indications and warnings” reports on geographies of concern. At a minimum, these reports are supposed to spot a war. Western Russia and Belarus, where Russian forces are currently concentrated, are undoubtedly under the microscope. Are tanks on the move? Planes loaded with weapons? Unusual heat or radio signatures? A sudden silence as execution orders are awaited? Dachas in the Moscow suburbs empty as defense officials work through the weekend? If any factors like these have become apparent, the Biden administration isn’t bothering to tell the public, even through customary unattributed leaks to friendly media.
It is possible that we are witnessing a self-licking ice cream cone. In an effort to recover from historic failure and humiliation in Afghanistan, Biden and his aides hyped the Russia threat. Are they now believing their own talking points—the echo chamber echoing back? London has its own perverse incentive: Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the greatest fool in the English-speaking world despite stiff competition, is fighting for his political life and undoubtedly welcomes a foreign crisis.
One thing that is clear is that U.S. and British governments have no idea what Russian President Putin intends. That is unfortunate, and ought to raise questions about what we really get from our $80 billion per year intelligence bureaucracy. Even during the Soviet era, when access to the Kremlin was much tougher, the West often had sources who could tell us what the Russian leadership was thinking.
In the absence of knowing, we must guess. Does Moscow have more to gain by invading or not invading? Putin has gotten much of what he wants already. He seems to have provoked a crisis with four goals:
Preventing NATO from making Ukraine a member,
Preventing the USA from permanently stationing forces in New Europe,
Undermining anti-Russian political forces in Ukraine; and
Illustrating NATO’s obsolescence.
While the USA and other governments have put out a lot of make-believe verbiage about nations having the right to join any alliance they want—a ludicrous notion to anyone who has even the faintest grasp of history—the reality is Ukraine has effectively no chance for admission to NATO. Any member can veto admission of a new country and Germany, now armed with the certain knowledge that Russia will attack if Ukraine joins NATO, will prevent any such membership. Berlin isn’t alone. The American public might also be an obstacle, with neither Biden nor Republicans able to describe any vital U.S. interests in Ukraine.
Similarly, the stationing of U.S. forces in New Europe has never been on the cards. The American public might be surprised to learn we still have 35,000 troops hanging out in Old Europe—pointlessly defending a grouping of 400 million people with a $21 trillion economy that can afford to defend itself. Furthermore, building the land army that would be necessary to take on Russia while risking nuclear war would be as useless to deterring China—our true adversary—as the last two decades of counterinsurgency in Middle East backwaters.
As for influencing events in Ukraine, while politicians and people there are putting on a brave face, those who would hesitate to depart fully from Moscow’s orbit have been given a long-term boost. Whereas invasion would galvanize the population against Russia, politicians who might topple those who are most energetically opposed to Moscow will have the upper hand if the crisis dies out quietly. Their calls for caution and not provoking the bear to the east may appeal to voters when the passions of near-war evaporate.
NATO too has been shown to be obsolete. The alliance, which as much as ever consists solely of American force with some modest augmentation from Britain and France, cannot defend anything east of Poland. Europe prefers decadent decline and cheap Russian energy to taking the many steps necessary to achieve military relevance.
With all of these factors going Moscow’s way, will Putin gamble and invade? Possibly. Certainly Biden, his aides, and the Brits, with their outlandish and improbable threats of what will befall Moscow if its acts, have created a mild incentive for such action in order to expose a paper tiger. Biden himself senses this, remarking of Putin: “He has to do something.”
However, contrary to billing, Putin is cautious. The parts of Georgia and Ukraine that Russia took were small, pro-Russian enclaves. Crimea was part of Russia since 1783, is culturally and linguistically Russian, and should never have been administered by Ukraine. With the caveats that anything can happen and that the weakness conveyed by Biden and the other neoliberal fools of the G7 is provocative, the odds are still best that Moscow does what it has said it would do throughout this crisis—nothing.
Simon and Whiton
Check out our latest episode of Simon & Whiton. We discuss inflation, China’s control of Forbes, and the worst Olympics ever. Video and audio below.
Fox Business
On “Mornings With Maria” today, I asked the CEO of the American Petroleum Institute about whether the Biden administration will stop talking down domestic oil and gas production and related investment. Check out the clip below for his response and his other insights. Video: https://bit.ly/3rIFzvx
