Kamala's Soft-on-China Word Salad--Garrett Exner
Ludicrous: Biden and Harris are trying to save Iran’s nuclear weapons program from Israeli attack.
Domino Theory
Christian Whiton in Bangkok and Mark Simon in Taipei are joined by Garrett Exner from the Hudson Institute—previously a staffer for Sen. Ted Cruz, a Pentagon official, and a U.S. Marine—on this episode of Domino Theory. Topics include Kamala Harris's deteriorating campaign and attempt to turn back the clock to appeasing China. We also discuss who will win the House and Senate, Japan and South Korea as allies, Taiwan’s estrangement from MAGA, and why Dolly Parton had to step in when the Biden-Harris administration failed. The podcast’s full video, audio, and excerpts are below. But first the lead in:
The Lead-in
(Edited transcript) Dominating all news is presidential race. We're in the final month, coming down the home stretch. Voting has begun in some states, and early voting picks up in earnest shortly.
You have a tightening race in which Donald Trump is closing the gap, seemingly, or at least maintaining a narrow gap in the national poll, and doing very well in the swing states. He only has to pick up one of the blue-leaning swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, and seems to be in a good position in the Republican-leaning swing states that he must win: North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
I should put up Nevada as a Democrat-leading swing state as well. Internal polls and even some external polls now have him up there and in Michigan. Previously, he was up narrowly in Pennsylvania. Of course, you get some outliers that show him behind in some of these states. Democrats in their fever dreams think that they may win the presidency and even knock off Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, even though Cruz has been consistently ahead in every single poll.
Dream on pinkos.
The other part of the scene here is of course the response to the hurricanes. Democrats badly fumbled the response to the first one. I think you had Dolly Parton have to come out with a million bucks of her own saying, these are my people, I want to help them. I don't think she was making a political point, but the implication is that the Democrats don't think that these are their people and have unlearned the lesson that George W. Bush learned the hard way with Hurricane Katrina.
Presidents have to respond and be seen responding to national emergencies and natural disasters. And you had the odd case where Kamala Harris supposedly tried to call the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis. Why would a vice president call a governor in a crisis? That call needs to come from the president.
And eventually Joe Biden did call him, which was seen as a schism within the Democrat campaign. And there’s just a general sense that the Harris-Walz ticket is not using the most of this last month, or the last month up to this point, whereas the Trump campaign has been connecting with voters in a feeling that is somewhat similar to 2016.
Then, there is one Asia element that has finally come into the campaign. I wish there were more China policy, of course, as a policy wonk, but Kamala Harris was asked on “60 Minutes” about her policy toward China and Taiwan, and she reiterated that her administration would support a One China policy, even though everyone can see there are many Chinas and not just the one controlled by the CCP.
She basically said Taiwan can buy the means of its defense, but that she wouldn't necessarily commit U.S. forces. This is interesting since Joe Biden himself said on multiple occasions that he would defend Taiwan. He was walked back from those statements sometimes before he left the podium by his own staff but it was an interesting sentiment and apparently that is now gone from the Democrat side of things.
And even though Harris doesn't really have a coherent foreign policy, much less an Asia policy, the establishment has at least hammered that into her mind--that catechism that we believe in One China and the other bells and whistles, which essentially amount to strategic ambiguity.
That's the lead in.
Full Episode and Edited Key Excerpts (see below for Spotify and other options)
Garrett Exner on Kamala and China
A few points: let's start with the Harris campaign and Vice President Harris. She said just the other day that the number one threat facing America is actually Iran. That is a break from about a decade now during which there's been a broad consensus that China is our main adversary. I don't think she's thinking about China as much as she should. She also said in a different interview that she wouldn't do much different than President Biden has done on foreign policy or on any issues, which is shocking when you think about the list of things that have been screwed up: Afghanistan, waiving Nord Stream 2 sanctions on Russia, delisting the Houthis, the list goes on. But her idea that she wouldn't do anything different from Biden on foreign policy should speak volumes for China because this has been almost Version 2.0 of the Obama administration during which China gained a lot of ground and a lot of territory, particularly in the South China Sea, and became very aggressive during the Obama years. China has done it again now and we're seeing it in the Philippines in particular.
Trump is a break from this in between the Biden administration and the Obama administration. I don't know if there's been another president that's been as effective at taking a strong stance on China. I think you know if I were China, I’m looking at this and my money would be on Harris. She’s probably the horse in this race that they want because they get what they have right now, which is free reign to do whatever they want to do in the South China Sea and maybe go after Taiwan in some kind of coercive way.
Mark Simon on Taiwan’s KMT and DPP estrangement from MAGA
The KMT guys are looking for whoever they think China wants. Now there are two different KMTs here. There are the younger guys. I know a lot of them and they would be the guys, if Taiwan were invaded, I think they would be the guys who fight.
You know what I'm saying? I have a friend, he has a construction company. He's very KMT, but he hates who they nominate all the time. But on the local level, you have to understand there's two KMTs. There's the national KMT, and then there are the guys in the mayors races and at that level. And they actually like Trump.
Trump is popular with a lot of people here because he's seen as a strong leader. But this is a society that is basically left leaning. It’s the “Arts and Crafts Club,” as I call them. Ray Burkhart is a conservative who ran AIT for years and he was the best thing for then-President Tsai because he said, “Look, Trump's coming in. These other people are coming in. You're gonna have to deal with them.” And the problem they have is—I'll openly criticize [Taiwanese Vice President] Bi-Khim and the rest of that crowd there other than Joseph Wu, who is very good—I think but institutionally inside Taiwan they basically lean left and I think they don't really understand Trump and they don't have many ties. A recent piece from Politico hit a nerve in reporting that the Taiwanese don't have any contacts in MAGA.
To which they responded: “Of course, we know McCaul and of course we know every Republican who's not MAGA; we're big fans of Liz Cheney.” They shoot themselves in the foot all the time.
Garrett Exner on the risk of war with China and the Philippines Crisis
I think general war could be less likely if the chips aren't all aligned. I actually think of the Philippines as the area where there's the most risk of gray-zone conflict below the threshold of full war. I think in those territorial waters that much of what we're seeing from China is their maritime militia.
We funded different militias around the world in different countries to push back against our adversaries. We could easily do that in the Philippines and get them to start being a little bit more aggressive.
I'm, not so sure that China is ready for a full-scale war with the United States. I think they want more time and I think that's why we see this kind of very incrementalist approach. However, ramming boats in the South China Sea, and moving into other people's territorial waters—at some point China should hit a hard point where there's a significant pushback. They've experienced none of it. And I think the Philippines gives us the best area where we can build that bulwark against the regression right now before it causes a war.
It might also delay any Chinese action against Taiwan for another decade or so, which is which would be wonderful because it gives us more time for Taiwan to acquire more weapons—if we had a president who wouldn't slow roll the or a State Department that wouldn't slow roll the weapon sales to Taiwan. So I’m actually maybe in the opposite camp here where I think we can do a lot with the Filipinos right now and pushing back.
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