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Jon Brach's avatar

so many reasons this is crazy...first off once the fed becomes a part of the a current admin our monetary policy becomes hostage to the whims the president...you speak of how powell inflated the economy under Biden and how he bought bonds and inflated the balance sheet under Biden which caused inflation...obviously this bloated balance sheet has to be brought under control and yet you criticize powell for letting bonds run off?...Inflation is still running above the 2% target and we are at full employment...cutting rates now with the explosion of debt and obvious pressure from Trump would likely steepen the yield curve dramatically with higher rates in the longer end....the truth is any president in office would if he could implore the fed to lower rates and how and when would we ever fight inflation?...Trump should seek some resolution on tariffs and lower taxes and pass a pro growth bill with fewer regulations etc and stay away from threatening to fire Powell

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Lee Spieckerman's avatar

Christian, you and I couldn’t be more in alignment regarding the President asserting power over the Fed. This would be a return to universally acknowledged Treasury Secretary control of Fed policy from the central bank’s creation in 1913 until the 1951 Treasury-Fed accord, a noxious backroom deal, not a law.

Where we part company is on government spending. There is no historical causation between increases in government deficits/debt and elevated inflation. You aptly alluded to Reagan’s economic success; what you left out: Reagan’s huge deficits TRIPLED our national debt in mere eight years. Nearly 31 years of declining then tame inflation followed. The “Biden deficits” (actually much of them and the debt increase from Trump/GOP-enacted COVID stimulus) couldn’t possibly have been at fault for the ‘21-‘23 inflation spike. As spending from Biden-signed programs entered the economy—and our national debt ballooned—inflation continued to collapse. When Biden left office, it was a full two points lower than when Reagan’s presidency ended and near Clinton-era levels.

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